Has The Decades-Long Slide In Treasury Yields Run Out Of Road?

Published Sun, 01 Nov 2020 12:10:09 -0500 on Seeking Alpha

Seeking AlphaFinancial Advisor | Today's Market | Market OutlookHas The Decades-Long Slide In Treasury Yields Run Out Of Road?Nov. 1, 2020 12:10 PM ET|| Includes: BIL, DDM, DFVL, DFVS, DIA, DOG, DTUL, DTUS, DTYL, DXD, EDV, EEH, EGF, EPS, EQL, FEX, FIBR, GBIL, GOVT, GSY, HUSV, IEF, IEI, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OTPIX, PLW, PSQ, PST, QID, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RINF, RISE, RSP, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SCHO, SCHR, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SH, SHV, SHY, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TAPR, TBF, TBT, TBX, TLH, TLT, TMF, TMV, TNA, TQQQ, TTT, TWM, TYD, TYO, TZA, UBT, UDN, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, USDU, UST, UUP, UWM, VFINX, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VOO, VTWO, VUSTX, VV, ZROZby: James PicernoJames Picerno Macro, economy, Long OnlySummaryPredicting the end of the secular decline in interest rates has been a hardy perennial - and perennially wrong.
Given this history, any observer of bond yields must be wary of declaring that a 40-year trend has reached its end.
Nothing lasts forever, of course, and so it's conceivable that at some point the decline and fall of interest rates will reach a finale.
Predicting the end of the secular decline in interest rates has been a hardy perennial - and perennially wrong. Given this history, any observer of bond yields must be wary of declaring that a 40-year trend has reached its end.
Nothing lasts forever, of course, and so it's conceivable that at some point the decline and fall of interest rates will reach a finale. But speculating on whether that day is next week, next year or 20 years hence is one of the great challenges of finance in the 21st century.
In the current climate, it's reasonable to assume that the thud that, at some point, will mark the bottom is nowhere on the near-term horizon. But the possibility, however far-fetched, presents itself anew in recent weeks via market data and so it's useful to review the numbers in search of fresh perspective.
Perhaps there's some... Read more