AGNC Investment's Q2 2020 Income Statement And Earnings Projection - Part 2 (Includes Dividend Sustainability Metric And Recommendation)
Published Jul 20, 2020 on Seeking Alpha

Seeking AlphaREITsAGNC Investment's Q2 2020 Income Statement And Earnings Projection - Part 2 (Includes Dividend Sustainability Metric And Recommendation)Jul. 20, 2020 12:36 PM ET|| About: AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC), Includes: AGNCM, AGNCN, AGNCO, AGNCP, AI, AI.PB, AI.PC, AIC, AIW, ANH, ANH.PA, ANH.PB, ANH.PC, ARR, ARR.PC, CHMI, CHMI.PA, CHMI.PB, DX, DX.PB, DX.PC, GPMT, IVR, IVR.PA, IVR.PB, IVR.PC, MITT, MITT.PA, MITT.PB, MITT.PC, MORT, NLY, NLY.PD, NLY.PF, NLY.PG, NLY.PI, NRZ, NRZ.PA, NRZ.PB, NRZ.PC, NYMT, NYMTM, NYMTN, NYMTO, NYMTP, ORC, REM, REML, TWO, TWO.PA, TWO.PB, TWO.PC, TWO.PD, TWO.PEby: Scott KennedyScott Kennedy The REIT ForumThe #1 REIT Service Measured By Total ReturnsSummaryUnlike the prior quarter, I'm projecting AGNC will report a notably less severe loss regarding the company’s derivative instruments and other securities for the second quarter of 2020.
Interest rate payer swaps and U.S. Treasury securities across most tenors/maturities experienced a minor-modest decrease in rates/yields during the quarter.
The recent decline in short-term rates negatively impacted AGNC’s quarterly net periodic interest expense regarding its interest rate swaps. This trend has partially mitigated the notable decrease in borrowing costs.
My projection for AGNC’s net income, net spread + dollar roll income, and EPS for the second quarter of 2020 is stated in the “Conclusions Drawn” section of the article.
I believe AGNC remains attractively priced since sector stock prices are still notably below estimated CURRENT BV and earnings should improve with the modestly steepening yield curve.
Author’s Note: PART 2 of this article is a continuation from PART 1 which was discussed in a previous publication. Please see PART 1 of this article for a detailed projection of AGNC Investment Corp.’s (AGNC) income statement (technically speaking, the company’s “consolidated statement of comprehensive income”) for the second quarter of 2020 regarding... Read more