Dividends 2019: Resolve To Restrain Expectations And Scrutinize Risk

Financial annals will likely look back at 2018 as a generally tumultuous year in terms of equity performance. Two sharp corrections highlighted an otherwise mildly collective down year. To those of us that have been skeptical about broad-based stock valuations for some time, the rough ride experienced was certainly not a shock.
Still, at least on a near-term basis, equities continue to be resilient, with investors maintaining their "buy the dips" mentality, which has prevailed for almost a decade now. Last year's early 11% selloff (SPY) was re-traced with a higher high by October and the more brutal late year 20% selloff has already been re-traced by half.
SPY - 1 year
Source: Ameritrade
Of course, as we scan various corners of the market, some stocks - particularly in the tech sector - have fared far worse. Apple (AAPL), for instance, has sold off in excess of the broader market and hasn't bounced back due to iPhone demand concerns. Cutting edge component companies, Nvidia (NVDA), for example, have seen market caps shaved by half due to bloated valuation and disappointing near-term guidance.
Given the variety of geopolitical and disruptive macro- and micro-market forces currently at work, don't expect equity volatility to abate any time soon - but do expect more disappointments. Further, closely monitor fixed-income markets where, recently, economic ebullience has been quickly replaced by recessionary trepidation.
What all this means... Read more