Dividend Investors: Should You Really Be Worried About Multiple Contraction?
I thought the general caution delivered by Reuben Gregg Brewer in his recent article concerning multiple contraction was well presented. In simple terms, he was repeating the old adage of "the higher they climb, the harder they may fall." Certainly nothing to argue there.
He, like others, seems, however, preoccupied with new market index highs that have been attained over the past few weeks. His article's title, "Dividend Investors: Get Ready For Multiple Contraction," seems to neglect much of what's been going on in the market outside of the three consumer stocks -- Pepsi (NYSE: PEP), Coke (NYSE: KO), and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) -- whose valuations he specifically called out.
The fact is we've already seen severe price/multiple contraction in quite a few dividend corners over the past several years. Many sectors -- oil & gas companies, other commodity-centrics, many industrials, retailers, hotel REITs/chains, and cruise lines, to name a few, have been taken out to the wood shed due to various levels of business concern.
Here's just a sampling of peak to trough price destruction post financial crisis:
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) - 37% decline Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) - 52% decline Seadrill (NYSE: SDRL) - 95% decline Alcoa (NYSE: AA) - 65% decline Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) - 52% decline Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) - 52% decline Macy's (NYSE: M) - 55% decline Potash of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) -75% decline IBM - 45% decline Host... Read more